MRT: Abbott: ‘Greater Fatalities’ Ahead; Hospitalizations Continue to Rise; TWC Wants $46M in Unemployment Overpayments Back; Turner to RPT: Cancel It
Here's What You Need to Know in Texas Today.
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BY: @MattMackowiak
TUESDAY – 07/07/20
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Early voting in the primary runoffs runs through July 10. The runoff is Tuesday, July 14. Find early voting locations here.
TOP NEWS
"Gov. Abbott warns of ‘greater fatalities’ from COVID-19 in coming weeks,"The Houston Chronicle's Jeremy Wallace -- "Gov. Greg Abbott is warning of even “greater fatalities” from COVID-19 as the number of people in hospitals with lab-confirmed cases hit a record 8,698 on Monday.
During a television interview in Dallas, Abbott agreed that at one point even as new coronavirus infections were rising, the state’s deaths were decreasing — which could have been seen as good news. But he said heading into the Fourth of July weekend, Texas had its deadliest four-day stretch since the pandemic started, and he warned of things to come.
“My concern is that we may see greater fatalities going forward as we go into the middle part of July,” Abbott said.
Over the last 7 days, Texas has averaged 36 coronavirus deaths per day. That is up from a week ago when the state averaged 30 people dying per day from the disease.
Abbott said in the interview on FOX4 in Dallas that many of the people dying now likely contracted the disease back in late May.
So far, Texas has reported 2,655 deaths. New York has reported 24,913 and California has reported 6,337." Houston Chronicle
"COVID-19 hospitalizations in Texas continue to rise," viaAP-- "Hospitalizations across Texas have more than doubled in the last two weeks, rising to 8,698 people in hospitals on Monday.
Local officials across Texas say their hospitals are becoming increasingly stretched and are in danger of becoming overrun as cases of the coronavirus surge.
Along the Texas-Mexico border, Starr County Judge Eloy Vera said over the weekend that two severely ill patients were flown hundreds of miles north to Dallas and San Antonio because hospitals in the Rio Grande Valley were at capacity.
Texas surged past 8,000 statewide hospitalizations for the first time over the Fourth of July weekend — a more than quadruple increase in the past month. State health officials reported Monday that more than 12,000 beds remained available throughout Texas but the numbers differ locally.
Austin Mayor Steve Adler said hospitals in the Texas capital are at risk of becoming “overwhelmed” in the next week to 10 days unless the trajectory changes. San Antonio Mayor Ron Nirenberg says hospitals in the nation’s seventh-largest city are approaching capacity, and in Houston, officials say hospitals have already exceeded base capacity in intensive care units.
Republican Gov. Greg Abbott issued a mandatory statewide mask order last week after previously resisting the idea.
On Monday, Texas reported 5,318 new cases, after a record high of 8,258 on Saturday. Texas also reported 18 additional deaths Monday, bringing the totals to 2,655 reported deaths and 200,557 confirmed cases.
The true number of cases is likely much higher because many people have not been tested and studies suggest that people can be infected and not feel sick.
Meanwhile, Texas’ Republican Party leadership last week affirmed plans to hold its in-person convention in Houston.
In a tweet on Monday, Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner urged the party to hold a virtual convention, saying “in this city, all of our conferences have rescheduled or canceled for this year except one.”
For most people, the coronavirus causes mild or moderate symptoms that clear up within weeks. But for others, especially older adults and people with existing health problems, the highly contagious virus can cause severe symptoms and be fatal. The vast majority of people recover." AP
"Texas coronavirus cases cross 200,000 mark," The Austin American-Statesman's Nicole Cobler -- "Texas reached 200,000 total COVID-19 cases Monday, just 17 days after crossing the 100,000 threshold, a figure that took the state nearly four months to hit.
The grim milestone came as the state has reported weeks of surging hospitalizations and new cases, and as Gov. Greg Abbott aimed to clamp down on those rising numbers with a statewide mask order.
Although the number of newly reported cases rose at a slower rate Sunday and Monday, with the Texas Department of State Health Services reporting 5,318 cases Monday, a spokesman for the health agency said the state may see a “big increase” in new cases this week as more local jurisdictions report data after the holiday weekend.
“There were a lot of jurisdictions that didn’t report new cases with the holiday weekend, particularly on Saturday, which would have showed up in yesterday’s update,” agency spokesman Chris Van Deusen said in an email.
The number of cases and hospitalizations has accelerated since Memorial Day, prompting Abbott to close bars, reduce restaurant occupancy, pause additional reopenings and issue a statewide order to wear a face covering in counties with more than 20 COVID-19 cases." Austin American-Statesman
"Nearly 6,300 Texas companies received PPP loans of more than $1 million,"The Texas Tribune's Abby Livingston and Chris Essig -- "Nearly 6,300 Texas-based companies received loans from the federal government valued at more than $1 million this spring, representing a major injection of government money into the state as the federal government was straining to keep the economy afloat.
Within that sum, nearly 400 Texas companies received loans within the range of $5 million to $10 million, according to data the Trump administration released Monday.
The companies taking part in what government officials called the Paycheck Protection Program included a large number of well-known restaurant groups: the troubled Luby's cafeteria chain; Pappas restaurants, which is the parent company to Pappadeaux Seafood Kitchen and Pappasito's Cantina; Pei Wei Asian Diner; Rosa's Cafe and Tortilla Factory; and TGI Friday's. Each of those restaurants stated the loans allowed them to retain 500 jobs.
Other notable recipients included the Alamo Drafthouse Cinema chain and the Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo. Officials canceled the rodeo midway through this year's event in March in the early stages of the COVID-19 outbreak." Texas Tribune
STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT
"Texas wants $32 million in unemployment benefits back after finding 46,000 people were overpaid,"AP's Acacia Coronado and Paul Weber -- "More than 46,000 Texans who lost their jobs in recent months were initially overpaid by the Texas Workforce Commission, which now wants $32 million in unemployment benefits back.
“State law requires TWC to recover all unemployment benefits overpayments,” Cisco Gamez, spokesperson for the state agency, said in an email. “Overpayments stay on your record until repaid."
It's unclear how many of those overpayments, first reported by The Houston Chronicle, are due to fraud and how many are due to TWC's errors. The agency had not responded to requests for that information by late Monday. The agency also did not immediately provide the average amount that was overpaid.
Benefits must be repaid even if the state is to blame for the overpayment, or if it was otherwise not the recipient's fault. If TWC finds unemployment fraud in a case, the person has to give back the benefits and pay a 15% penalty.
Gamez on Monday originally said that the agency cannot pay someone benefits if they have been previously overpaid. But later Monday, he said the agency eliminated that rule earlier this year.
If the person that receives the notification of overpayment doesn't send back the money, the state comptroller can recover the money by withholding certain funds, including lottery winnings, unclaimed property, unemployment benefits and other state job-related expenses. Some state funding for college students cannot be released until a repayment is made in full.
Claimants who have received notices can appeal the process, but TWC can take legal action too if they don’t recover the money.
“There is no statute of limitations on debts owed to the state,” Gamez said on an email. “TWC cannot forgive or dismiss the overpayment and there is no exception for hardship.”" Texas Tribune
"Texas Lt. Gov. Patrick's broadcast company won federal loan,"AP's Acacia Coronado and Paul Weber -- "Texas Republican Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, who launched his political career on conservative talk radio, received a government small business loan for his Houston broadcasting company as the coronavirus pandemic shut down the economy, according to federal data released Monday.
Patrick Broadcasting received a loan of $179,000 from the federal Paycheck Protection Program, according to Patrick spokeswoman Sherry Sylvester. She said the money was sought due to a decline in advertising sales and was to cover the payroll and expenses of 13 employees.
“The loan did not cover his salary, but he was able to save the jobs of all his employees, many of whom have been with him for decades,” Sylvester said.
The Paycheck Protection Program is the centerpiece of the federal government’s plan to rescue an economy devastated by shutdowns and uncertainty. The program, which helps smaller businesses stay open and keep Americans employed during the pandemic, has been both popular and controversial.
Patrick is chairman of President Donald Trump’s reelection campaign in Texas. He drew national attention in March for saying that people over the age of 70, who the Centers for Disease Control says are at higher risk for severe illness from the coronavirus, will “take care of ourselves” as he called for a swift reopening of the economy.
Last week, Patrick criticized Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, saying he “doesn’t know what he’s talking about.”
Patrick is a former television sportscaster who later became a conservative talk radio host. His audience helped elected him to the state Senate in 2006 and lieutenant governor in 2014. Republican Gov. Greg Abbott, who does not own any companies, did not receive any loans, Abbott spokesman John Wittman said." AP
2020
"Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner urges Texas GOP to cancel its convention,"The Texas Tribune's Cassandra Pollock -- "Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner encouraged the Republican Party of Texas on Monday to cancel its in-person convention in Houston next week and warned that should the event continue, health inspectors would have the authority to shut down the gathering if certain guidelines are not followed.
Turner said that he planned to send a letter to members of the State Republican Executive Committee, the state party’s governing board, outlining conditions the party must follow in order to hold the convention.
“I do not think it is wise or prudent to hold a convention of 6,000 or more,” the Houston mayor’s office tweeted. “I am asking them to have a virtual event.”
A spokesperson for the state party did not immediately respond to a request for comment. And a copy of Turner's letter to the SREC was not immediately available.
"Health inspectors will be on-site for the entire convention to ensure all guidelines are being followed," Turner's office tweeted. "If they are not, the inspectors have the authority to shut down the convention."" Texas Tribune
"‘A lot harder’: COVID-19 challenges political fundraising as Texas heads toward critical November election,"The Dallas Morning News' Tom Benning -- "The ongoing coronavirus outbreak continues to challenge political fundraising in Texas, potentially complicating what was set up to be the state’s most hotly contested — and accordingly, most expensive — election season in decades.
That reality is apparent in select campaign finance data and anecdotal reports from Texas political consultants, both Democratic and Republican.
Giving dropped off as the pandemic took hold in April, though some of that certainly reflects the usual lull that follows the March primary. While there are signs fundraising activity has started to rebound — in a big way, in some cases — uncertainty remains at the forefront.
Fundraisers are eyeing with unease the dynamic heading into the fall, especially as continued economic pain due to the coronavirus leaves some donors less able to make contributions.
“It will have a significant impact,” said Susan Lilly, an Austin-based GOP fundraising consultant, pointing to stay-at-home orders and other measures. “You’re going to continue to have unemployment rates increase if we have to close businesses back down.”" Dallas Morning News
Ron Brownstein column: "Trump could sink the House GOP in suburbia," via CNN-- "President Donald Trump'scontinuing erosion among well-educated voters looms as perhaps the most imposing headwind to Republican hopes of recapturing the House of Representatives in November -- or even avoiding further losses in the chamber.
In 2018, a suburban revolt against Trump powered Democrats to sweeping gains in white-collar House districts from coast to coast. The backlash left the GOP holding only about one-fourth of all House districts that have more college graduates than the national average, down from more than two-fifths before the election, according to a new CNN analysis of census data.
Now, recent national and district-level polls signal that many of the well-educated voters souring on Trump are also displaying more resistance to Republican congressional candidates than in 2018 -- potentially much more.
That movement could frustrate GOP hopes of dislodging many of the first-term House Democrats who captured previously Republican suburban seats in 2018. It also means Democrats see further opportunities in white-collar House districts -- from Pennsylvania and Georgia to Indiana and especially Texas -- where the GOP held off the 2018 suburban tide, often only by narrow margins.
"The suburban exodus has continued, and my gut is as long as Trump is identified as the leader of the party, that continues," says former Republican Rep. Tom Davis of Virginia, who served as chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee.
Even if Trump's strength outside the metro areas allows the GOP to recapture some of the non-urban seats Democrats won last time, Davis warns, further suburban losses could still leave the party in a deeper hole after November.
"You can't afford that," says Davis, now a partner in Holland & Knight, a DC law firm. "[Suburbia] was the base of the Republican Party just a decade and a half ago. And there just aren't enough rural voters to make up for those kind of losses. It means for the Republicans that instead of picking up seats in the House, that the bleeding could continue."
The NRCC and some GOP consultants say such predictions overstate the party's risk. They argue that the 2018 Democratic incursions into previously red-leaning suburban districts represented a high-water mark, driven by a greater turnout of Democratic voters than Republican ones during the midterm election. In the larger turnout of the presidential year, they maintain, many of these districts will snap back to their historic Republican leanings and allow both Trump and GOP House candidates to carry them again.
Bob Salera, a spokesperson for the NRCC, says the committee's baseline assumption for these races is that Trump will run as well in most white-collar districts this year as he did in 2016, when he carried almost all of the new suburban districts Democrats are targeting in November, as well as many of those that the party captured in the 2018 midterms.
"For the most part, what we are seeing is Trump's standing in these [suburban] districts is fairly close, within a couple points of where it was in the 2016 election," Salera says. "Trump's approval right now isn't much lower, and in some cases in different places is higher, than it was in the 2016 election. Basically, we are looking at those 2016 numbers as a baseline for how the presidential [race] will play out in these districts."
But Democrats, and even some Republicans, say that polling this spring flatly refutes the assertion that Trump's position in white-collar House districts has not deteriorated since 2016.
In these suburban districts, "he's underperforming," says Robby Mook, president of the House Majority PAC, a Democratic super PAC. "The House battleground that we are looking at today [is districts] he won in 2016 and he is losing today. That's just a fact."
Mook, who served as Hillary Clinton's 2016 campaign manager, says that all evidence signals that, if anything, the suburban movement away from the GOP under Trump is accelerating, particularly as the President turns toward more culturally and racially divisive messages aimed at his non-urban base.
"There was this seismic shift in American politics in 2016 that advanced in 2018 and is continuing to advance now," Mook says. …
Public polling this spring consistently showed Trump and the GOP facing grim numbers with well-educated voters. National surveys released in the past few weeks by Monmouth University, the Pew Research Center and CNN all showed Trump's approval rating among White voters with at least a four-year college education sinking to 33% or less, with at least 64% disapproving.
By comparison, even during the 2018 Democratic sweep, exit polls found that 38% of college-educated White voters approved of Trump's job performance, according to results provided by Edison Research, which conducts the exit polls for a consortium of news organizations that includes CNN.
That decline contrasted with Trump's showing among minorities in the new CNN and Monmouth polls, which found the President's approval rating with voters of color was almost exactly the same as in the 2018 exit poll, just over 1-in-4 in each case.
The Monmouth and CNN polls and a national New York Times/Siena College survey all found Biden leading Trump among well-educated White voters by about 30 percentage points, a much bigger advantage than any data source on the 2016 results recorded for Clinton. (The exit polls showed Trump narrowly carrying those college-plus White voters.)
Critically, some of the recent public surveys found that weakness trickling down to GOP congressional candidates. In last week's Monmouth survey, college-educated White voters preferred Democrats over Republicans in House races by a resounding 59% to 36%. …
Many of the top Democratic House targets for November are within those remaining 41 Republican districts with more college graduates than average, including incumbent Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick in Pennsylvania, Ann Wagner in Missouri, Chip Roy in Austin, Don Bacon in Nebraska, David Schweikert in Arizona and Steve Chabot in Ohio, as well as opportunities in open seats around Indianapolis, Atlanta, Houston, Dallas and Raleigh, North Carolina. Several more potentially vulnerable GOP seats (including those held by incumbent Reps. Rodney Davis in Illinois, John Katko in New York and Scott Perry in Pennsylvania) come in just below the average education line.
The flip side is also true: Many of the Democrats elected in 2018 who Republicans most hope to oust hold seats in districts with many more college graduates than average, including Reps. Lizzie Fletcher and Colin Allred in Texas, Sharice Davids in Kansas, Elissa Slotkin and Haley Stevens in Michigan, Lucy McBath in Georgia, Abigail Spanberger in Virginia, Tom Malinowski in New Jersey and all the newly elected Democrats from Orange County, California. …
Perhaps the best test of Trump's standing in white-collar districts will come in Texas, which Republicans have dominated since the early 1990s. Even in 2016, the state was only marginally competitive, with Trump beating Clinton there by 9 percentage points or nearly 800,000 votes. But in 2018, Democratic Senate candidate Beto O'Rourke rode a surge of support in Texas' big metropolitan areas -- he won its five largest counties by about six times as much as Barack Obama did in 2012 -- to hold Republican Sen. Ted Cruz to a victory of only about 2.5 percentage points. Democrats rode O'Rourke's strong performance to sweeping gains in state legislative and local elections across urban and suburban areas, as well as the election of Fletcher and Allred.
"In Texas, the Democrats performed about as well in the suburbs in 2018 as they've done in 20 or 25 years," says Matt Mackowiak, a Republican consultant and GOP chair in Travis County (Austin)." CNN
"In GOP runoffs for the Texas House, viability in November is a leading concern,"The Texas Tribune's Patrick Svitek and Cassandra Pollock -- "Texas Republicans are set to soon finalize their nominees for three state House seats that will likely be competitive in November, races that have elevated debates over who is the most viable for the general election.
With the Tuesday runoffs, the GOP will select nominees to take on two Democrats who flipped seats in 2018: Reps. Vikki Goodwin of Austin and Erin Zwiener of Driftwood. Republicans will also make their pick for the seat of retiring Rep. Rick Miller, R-Sugar Land, who saw an unexpectedly close race two years ago.
Top Republicans are especially focused on the runoffs to challenge Goodwin and fill Miller’s seat as Democrats hope to flip the House for the first time in roughly two decades. In the primary, Gov. Greg Abbott endorsed a candidate to replace Miller, former Fort Bend County GOP Chair Jacey Jetton, while the governor more recently picked sides in the runoff to take on Goodwin, backing Austin police officer Justin Berry. Last week, the Republican State Leadership Committee, a national group focused on state legislative races, endorsed Jetton and Berry and announced it would help them as part of a $200,000 investment across five Texas House runoffs.
“Our thought is we need to get candidates who have real-world experiences different than the average candidate and people who have the communication skills and the policies and the personality that can get them to reach out to win independent, swing, voters in the fall,” said Dave Carney, Abbott’s chief political strategist. “It’s always the idea to get the best nominee out of the primary for these seats.”
In addition to the Republican runoffs for the Goodwin and Miller seats, Carrie Isaac and Kent “Bud” Wymore are facing off to take on Zwiener. Isaac, executive director of an Austin-based nonprofit and wife to former state Rep. Jason Isaac, R-Dripping Springs, got close to winning outright in the three-way March primary, garnering 48% of the vote to Wymore’s 41%.
While Isaac and Wymore, former chair of the Hays County Republican Party, duked it out in the primary, the runoff has been quieter, and GOP leaders and groups seem less concerned with who emerges as the nominee against Zwiener than they do in the districts held by Goodwin and Miller.
Still, the theme of viability in November has at times surfaced in the race. In a recent email to supporters, Isaac pointed to her list of endorsements from elected officials, saying “they know I’m the strongest candidate that gives us the best chance to win in November" to work on cutting property taxes and securing the border, among other things.
In another Austin-area House seat, Berry and Austin attorney Jennifer Fleck are facing off for their party’s nomination to take on Goodwin. Berry advanced to the runoff after earlier results had the candidate finishing third, and thus missing the overtime round, by just one vote.
Since that March contest, the contrast between Berry and Fleck has sharpened considerably, with Berry’s campaign seizing on what Fleck has said and done during the coronavirus pandemic. In mid-March, as the virus was hitting the state, Fleck traveled to the beach for what she characterized on social media as an already-planned spring break trip with family. Then, in April and May, Fleck attended rallies in Austin, joining activists calling on Abbott to begin reopening parts of the state.
“She self-destructed and disqualified herself in the last twelve weeks,” Craig Murphy, a spokesperson for Berry’s campaign, told the Tribune. “People took one look and, without any doubt, knew she would have no chance to win in November."
Fleck, who on social media has often downplayed the danger of the virus, has aligned herself with hardline conservative groups such as Texas Right to Life and Gun Owners of America, earning support from both in her bid for the House seat. She has also picked up endorsements from two of the three other Republican candidates in the March primary: former Austin City Council member Don Zimmerman, who is now seeking a seat in the Texas Senate, and Austin lawyer Aaron Reitz.
Fleck has also brushed off Abbott’s endorsement of Berry, often invoking the hashtag #FleckTheEstablishment in posts on social media.
“Please tell me,” she wrote in a recent post on Facebook, “Why on God's green earth would this man endorse against me in a contested primary runoff that I lead and spend money to subvert the will of the people?”
Fleck’s track record has also caught the attention of Associated Republicans of Texas, a prominent GOP group supporting Berry. In a recent mail piece, the group contrasted the two candidates by casting Fleck as the candidate “focused on fringe issues” and Berry as the one with experience and electability on his side.
“While Justin Berry has focused on core conservative issues, Fleck has focused on fringe issues that will make her unelectable in November,” a line on the mailer reads. “With Democrats spending millions to make the Texas House like Nancy Pelosi’s U.S. House, we cannot risk this seat on Jennifer Fleck.”
Fleck, whose campaign did not respond to a request for comment for this story, addressed the mailer on social media in June, saying it was sent out “on behalf of my sneaky opponent.” Responding to the “fringe issues” criticism, Fleck said in a Facebook post, “If fringe issues are protecting children, families and parental rights, then YES I am fringe. I am very electable. Judge for yourself.”
“You can’t risk choosing any other candidate but me,” Fleck wrote. “I am a fighter and I will be your champion! Stop wasting your money trying to beat me dolts. The People will decide.”" Texas Tribune
"Texas Democrat's congressional campaign received a PPP loan in May,"The Texas Tribune's Abby Livingston -- "A Democratic candidate for the U.S. House took an unconventional route this spring to keeping her campaign afloat: She took out a small business loan that was part of the government response to the COVID-19 inflicted damage on the economy.
Dr. Christine Eady Mann confirmed to The Texas Tribune on Monday a KXAN report that she took out a $28,600 Paycheck Protection Program loan for her campaign. As a family physician, she said, she has spent much of her time as a frontline worker responding to the outbreak. Her campaign paid the loan back last month.
"Fundraising was challenging," she said of the early May loan from First Texas Bank. "So we applied for and were granted the loan, just like every other small business that needed to feed their employees."
Federal officials created the PPP program this spring as a means to prevent small business owners from laying off staff. Should the owners comply with federal mandates within the program, the loans will shift into grants and effectively be forgiven.
Mann said her campaign paid the money back, and her most recent campaign finance report verifies that on June 23 her campaign paid the bank $28,600 in an itemized disbursement labeled "Paycheck Protection Program."
"Thankfully, we were able to pay it back a few weeks later," she said. "Six weeks to be exact."" Texas Tribune
REMAINDERS
HOUSTON ASTROS: “Nats, Astros, Cards cancel workouts over virus testing delay” AP
FC DALLAS: “FC Dallas out of MLS is Back Tournament amid coronavirus cases” ESPN
'MACK ON POLITICS' PODCAST
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Available on iTunes, Google Play, Spotify, Stitcher and on the web at http://www.MackOnPoliticsPodcast.com.
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